The Baseball Projection Project

Thank you all for your support over the years. I'm going on a baseball sabermetrics hiatus for the time being--priorities in my life have changed a bit and I need to bow out for the sake of work-life balance. If anyone is interested in picking up the baton, please let me know. In the mean time, I'll leave the site up for those who are interested.

All the best!

Will

Follow @larsonwd

Proprietary projections

Bill James
Oliver/THT
PECOTA
Baseball HQ

Links of interest

Fangraphs
Hardball Times
Razzball
Steamer Projections

Articles using the information
on this website

2014 Projection Review
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2015)
Moonshot: Projecting Uncertainty
      (Rob Arthur and Will Larson at Baseball Prospectus ; 2015)
Evaluating The 2014 Projection Systems
      (Dan Meyer at Hardball Times; 2014)
Moonshot: The Power of Projections
      (Rob Arthur at Baseball Prospectus; 2014)
Steamer Success Story
      (Dash Davidson at Steamer; 2014)
Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison
      (Geoff at Rotovalue; 2014)
Monster 2013 Projection Review
      (Geoff at Rotovalue; 2014)
Evaluating 2013 Projections
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2014)
Evaluating 2012 Projections
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2013)
Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2012)
Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2012)
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2011)
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2011)
Projecting uncertainty
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2011)
Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections
      (Will Larson at Fangraphs; 2011)

Articles on baseball forecast evaluation

Granularity of Weighted Averages and Use of Rate Statistics in AggPro
      (Gore, Snapp, and Highley; 2010)
Evaluation of 2009 Hitter Forecasts
      (Davidson, Rosenbaum, and Cross; 2010)
Evaluation of 2009 Pitcher Forecasts
      (Davidson, Rosenbaum, and Cross; 2010)
AggPro: The Aggregate Projection System
     (Gore, Snapp, and Highley; 2009)
2007 Hitter Projection Roundup
      (Nate Silver; 2007)
Projections and Trajectories
      (Tom Tango)

Projections

2015 Projections
AggProk
Bayesball
CAIRO
CBS Sportsline
Clay Davenport
ESPN
Fangraphs Fans
Fox
John Grenci
GURU
Will Larson
Marcel
MLB.com
MORPS
Pecota
Mike Podhorzer
Razzball
RotoChamp
Dan Rosenheck
Rotovalue
Sports Illustrated
Steamer
Steamer-Depth
Steamer-Razzball
TG Fantasy Baseball
Yahoo
Zips

2014 Projections
AggProk
Dan Rosenheck
Steamer
Will Larson
Marcel
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
CAIRO
Razzball
RotoChamp
Fangraphs Fans
GURU
Clay Davenport
MORPS
Oliver
Rotovalue
BEANS
Bayesball

2013 Projections
AggProk
Dan Rosenheck
John Grenci (GQE)
Steamer
Will Larson
Marcel
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
CAIRO
Razzball
RotoChamp
Fangraphs Fans
GURU
Sports Illustrated
Clay Davenport
MORPS

2012 Projections
Dan Rosenheck
Jesse Smith
John Grenci (GQE)
Steamer
Will Larson
Marcel
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
CAIRO
RotoChamp
Fangraphs Fans
GURU

2011 Projections
Steamer
AggPro-Category
AggPro-System
Baseball Dope
Will Larson
Marcel
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
Razzball
CAIRO
RotoChamp
Fangraphs Fans

2010 Projections
Steamer
Oliver/Hardball Times
Marcel
CHONE
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
Fangraphs Fans

2009 Projections
Oliver/Fangraphs
Marcel

2001-2008 Marcel Projections
2008, 2007, 2006, 2005,
2004, 2003, 2002, 2001

All Hitters
(CSV)

Hitters
NEEDED
TBD
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
NEEDED
NONE
TBD
TBD
CSV
NEEDED
CSV
WITHHELD
WITHHELD
CSV
TBD
WITHHELD
CSV
NEEDED
CSV
CSV
CSV
TBD
NEEDED
CSV

CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
NONE
CSV

CSV
CSV
NONE
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
CSV
NONE
CSV
CSV
ZIP
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
ZIP
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
CSV
ZIP
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
ZIP

All Pitchers
(CSV)

Pitchers
NEEDED
TBD
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
NEEDED
CSV
TBD
TBD
CSV
NEEDED
CSV
WITHHELD
WITHHELD
CSV
TBD
WITHHELD
CSV
NEEDED
CSV
CSV
CSV
TBD
NEEDED
CSV

CSV
NONE
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
NONE
CSV
CSV
CSV
ZIP
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
ZIP
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

CSV
CSV
ZIP
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV

ZIP

FAQs

Q: Who are you?
A: I'm Will Larson, and I'm a Ph. D. economist. I'm from Montana, live in DC, love to golf, and have fun with baseball stats in my spare time. My personal/professional website is at www.williamlarson.com.

Q: Why CSV files and not excel?
A: It's way easier to deal with large amounts of .csv data than .xls data.

Q: Why only R, HR, RBI, AVG, SB for hitters and W, SO, WHIP, and ERA for pitchers?
A: Many people are interested in modeling player statistics using structural models (using k/bb%, hr/fb%, babip, for some examples). If you want detailed data like this to do forecasting yourself, go to Fangraphs or Baseball Databank. My site is meant simply to be a place where you can find different forecasts of top-line numbers.

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*Projections were submitted, but the numbers will not be published until the end of the season at the owner's request.

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