The Baseball Projection Project

The purpose of the Baseball Projection Project* is to harness the talent and the hard work of the the many amateur and professional baseball forecasters out there. These people, like myself, use a variety of formal and informal methods to do one thing: predict the performance of baseball players. Here at the Baseball Projection Project, I ask that you submit your projections so that history may judge your forecasting ability, and so we as a community can determine who does it the best.

If anyone wishes to use the data on this site to write an article for print or online consumption, please do two things: 1) let me know, and 2) cite appropriately.

To submit a projection, request a link to your blog or article, or for any reason, please email me at:

larsonwd@gmail.com


Proprietary projections

Bill James
Oliver/THT
PECOTA
Baseball HQ

Links of interest

Fangraphs
Hardball Times
Razzball
Steamer Projections

Articles on baseball forecast evaluation

Granularity of Weighted Averages and Use of Rate Statistics in AggPro
      (Gore, Snapp, and Highley; 2010)
Evaluation of 2009 Hitter Forecasts
      (Davidson, Rosenbaum, and Cross; 2010)
Evaluation of 2009 Pitcher Forecasts
      (Davidson, Rosenbaum, and Cross; 2010)
AggPro: The Aggregate Projection System
     (Gore, Snapp, and Highley; 2009)
2007 Hitter Projection Roundup
      (Nate Silver; 2007)
Projections and Trajectories
      (Tom Tango)

Articles using the information
on this website

Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison
      (Geoff at Rotovalue; 2014)
Monster 2013 Projection Review
      (Geoff at Rotovalue; 2014)
Evaluating 2013 Projections
      (Will Larson; 2014)
Evaluating 2012 Projections
      (Will Larson; 2013)
Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections
      (Will Larson; 2012)
Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections
      (Will Larson; 2012)
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1
      (Will Larson; 2011)
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2
      (Will Larson; 2011)
Projecting uncertainty
      (Will Larson; 2011)
Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections
      (Will Larson; 2011)

Free Projections
 

2014 Projections
AggProk
Dan Rosenheck
Steamer
Will Larson
Marcel
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
CAIRO
Razzball
RotoChamps
Fangraphs Fans
GURU
Sports Illustrated
Clay Davenport
MORPS
Oliver
Rotovalue

2013 Projections
AggProk
Dan Rosenheck
John Grenci (GQE)
Steamer
Will Larson
Marcel
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
CAIRO
Razzball
RotoChamps
Fangraphs Fans
GURU
Sports Illustrated
Clay Davenport (need link!)
MORPS (need link!)

2012 Projections
Dan Rosenheck
Jesse Smith
John Grenci (GQE)
Steamer
Will Larson
Marcel
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
CAIRO
RotoChamps
Fangraphs Fans
GURU

2011 Projections
Steamer
AggPro-Category
AggPro-System
Baseball Dope
Will Larson
Marcel
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
Razzball
CAIRO
RotoChamps
Fangraphs Fans

2010 Projections
Steamer
Oliver/Hardball Times
Marcel
CHONE
Zips
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
Fangraphs Fans

2009 Projections
Oliver/Fangraphs
Marcel

2001-2008 Marcel Projections
2008, 2007, 2006, 2005,
2004, 2003, 2002, 2001

All Hitters
(CSV)

Hitters
CSV
End of Season
CSV
CSV
Need to Acquire
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
Need to Acquire
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Need to Acquire
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NONE
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CSV
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NONE
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ZIP
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CSV
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ZIP
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CSV
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ZIP
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CSV
ZIP

All Pitchers
(CSV)

Pitchers
CSV
End of Season
CSV
CSV
Need to Acquire
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
CSV
Need to Acquire
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Need to Acquire
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CSV
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NONE
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ZIP
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CSV
CSV
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ZIP
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ZIP
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ZIP

FAQs

Q: Who are you?
A: I'm Will Larson, and I'm a Ph. D. economist. I'm from Montana, live in DC, love to golf, and have fun with baseball stats in my spare time. My personal/professional website is at www.williamlarson.com.

Q: Why CSV files and not excel?
A: It's way easier to deal with large amounts of .csv data than .xls data.

Q: Why only R, HR, RBI, AVG, SB for hitters and W, SO, WHIP, and ERA for pitchers?
A: Many people are interested in modeling player statistics using structural models (using k/bb%, hr/fb%, babip, for some examples). If you want detailed data like this to do forecasting yourself, go to Fangraphs or Baseball Databank. My site is meant simply to be a place where you can find different forecasts of top-line numbers.

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*I googled "baseball projection project" to see if I was stepping on anyones toes or violating any IP, and I came across one thing, "The Prospectus Projections Project." Since this article is 12 years old and has not been updated, I'm going to assume that BP won't mind if my name shares two words with an article of theirs. If I'm mistaken, and you're a member of BP, please let me know and we can talk.

**Projections were submitted, but the numbers will not be published until the end of the season at the owner's request.

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Copyright 2011-2014: William Larson